I was listening to NPR last night and they had an analysis that Arlen Specter may be facing a primary challenge because of his support for the stimulus bill. He's savvy enough (and has been in office long enough) to fend off a challenge within his own party, but it seems some of the party faithful are gunning for the centrists in a big way. If the stimulus does work, then there's a chance (albeit a slim one given the voting base of "electable" Republicans) that the door will open for more centrists to win elections -- and those smiling faces from congress who were all "thumbs up" about the stimulus bill will increase in number.
JonCummings
· 10 months ago
Right-wingers have been gunning for Specter in PA for decades, and considering his past health problems and advancing age, this may be the year they take him down. If they do, however, they'll be doing the GOP a huge disservice. Look at the percentages by which Santorum went down in '06 and Obama went up in '08, and PA clearly is trending away from that whole "Alabama in the middle" thing. A right-wing challenge to Specter is the quickest possible route to a 60-vote Dem majority in 2011.
My sense is that centrism is still in a downward spiral, particularly among Republicans. McCain's defeat may have killed it entirely--he's probably the last non-wingnut the GOP will nominate for a while. It'll be interesting to see if the Republicans recruit more centrists or crazies to run against Congressional Dems in 2010--my guess is they won't be able to help themselves, and they'll go for the crazies.
laird107
· 10 months ago
Regardless of which of the many explanations/excuses you choose for Obama's delay in taking to the road campaigning for his vision of the stimulus bill (e.g. getting used to the job, Daschle shock, clinging to the Hope of bipartisanship), the fact remains that it came entirely to late. The American people voted for Obama because they wanted him to LEAD us out of our twin deserts of (1) wars in the desert, and (2) an economy which turned to sand under the ham-fisted guidance of Republicans who even today believe that salvation comes from tax cuts and deregulation.
If Obama had started campaigning for the bill he wanted passed, and activated his direct link with the people through his web sites and e-mail lists, it is doubtful that the final shape of the bill would be much different, but Obama would have made clear what he wanted it to do and why, in the perfect clarity of policy and purpose which he showed at the first real Presidential press conference in nearly ten years. He would have taken ownership of these plans and issues, and set the stage for the next battle with Congress. As it is, Congress will have ownership of this stimulus bill, which falls so far short of what it should have been. In fact, Senators Snow, Collins, and Spector will have ownership of this stimulus bill. These three would have controlled to shape of the final Stimulus bill in any case because of Senate math, which takes 60 votes to pass any legislation. Until Al Franken can take his seat, and the Democrats can pick up the 60th vote so that they do not need any moderate Republican support to pass a bill, these three senators have more power than anyone else in Congress.
The press is telling us that Obama failed to deliver on his campaign promise to bring change to Washington because he could not make Republicans want to play by bipartisan rules. This is not true. Obama did deliver his promise. The change he brought was to get Congress to pass a piece of major legislation, breaking the stalemate that has prevailed in Washington for so many years.
Laird Cummings
steve
· 10 months ago
Well, first off, Obama has partly failed so far to bring "change we can believe in" by appointing 3 tax cheats in his cabinet, and then making a so-called rule of 'no lobbyists' in his cabinet and then turning around and breaking it the very next day. Those two things alone show that he's probably going to be a say-one-thing-do-the-opposite politician. Most on this blog still have the same tingle in their legs that Chris Matthews and the media have over the guy. Take my advice - get the tingle out now - he's a politician, which means 'not good' generally. Prepare yourself for major letdowns now, it'll be easier.
Secondly, just curious Laird, you say he should lead us out of these 'wars' in the deserts. Do you think the Afghanistan war should never have happened? Do you think we (NATO) should just leave? I'm not talking Iraq, I mean Afghanistan. Please elaborate. FYI, Obama has never said he is going to get us out of Afghanistan - he actually wants to build up troops. And he should. We need to stabilize that country and neutralize the Taliban. But if you think he will 'lead us out of Afghanistan", he never said that he would, and he won't. Trust me, I've been there,ain't we ain't leaving anytime soon. One needs to visit to see how screwed up and complex things really are there - and it's not another "blame it on the Bushies thing". Afghanistan's problems are rooted in things that haven't changed for a thousand years.
As much as Obama has disappointed me so far (and this awful "stimulus" bill actually scares the hell outta me) I have to give him credit for 2 things. One, he said "I screwed up" about one of his three tax cheats. Now, he doesn't deserve too much credit here, because when most of the lame-stream media is worshipping you (I hear MSNBC is having daily church services praying to Obama statues) then it's much easier to say you screwed up. The media will just give you a pass, blow you another kiss, and tuck you into bed. But he did at least say it, which is more than W would ever do about Iraq, the single biggest foreign policy disaster in recent US history. If anything deserved an "I screwed up" it was Iraq, and we'll likely never get it.
Secondly, I admire Obama for having some serious hutzbah on this awful bill. He came out an basically said "if it fails, well, you can blame me". And this thing is a scary, dangerous beast that could potentially slide us into something that is actually as bad as the great depression - which we are nowhere even close to. Things are bad for American standards, but our unemployment rate is still lower than many Western European countries. But when you listen to the Obama scare tactics, you'd think our country will cease to exist in a week or two if nothing is done. But he deserves credit for basically going for it. He's gonna throw up the Hail Mary Pass with this thing 3 weeks into his administration. I kinda admire that in many ways. It's like a double-or-nothing bet at the craps table. Win, or walk with nothing. He seems like a gambler, and that could be a good thing and a bad thing too. Either way, he could well be sealing his legacy only thee weeks into his administration. But I give him credit for having the cahones to take a chance and go for it, whether I agree with how he's doing it or not.
All Comments
My sense is that centrism is still in a downward spiral, particularly among Republicans. McCain's defeat may have killed it entirely--he's probably the last non-wingnut the GOP will nominate for a while. It'll be interesting to see if the Republicans recruit more centrists or crazies to run against Congressional Dems in 2010--my guess is they won't be able to help themselves, and they'll go for the crazies.
If Obama had started campaigning for the bill he wanted passed, and activated his direct link with the people through his web sites and e-mail lists, it is doubtful that the final shape of the bill would be much different, but Obama would have made clear what he wanted it to do and why, in the perfect clarity of policy and purpose which he showed at the first real Presidential press conference in nearly ten years. He would have taken ownership of these plans and issues, and set the stage for the next battle with Congress. As it is, Congress will have ownership of this stimulus bill, which falls so far short of what it should have been. In fact, Senators Snow, Collins, and Spector will have ownership of this stimulus bill. These three would have controlled to shape of the final Stimulus bill in any case because of Senate math, which takes 60 votes to pass any legislation. Until Al Franken can take his seat, and the Democrats can pick up the 60th vote so that they do not need any moderate Republican support to pass a bill, these three senators have more power than anyone else in Congress.
The press is telling us that Obama failed to deliver on his campaign promise to bring change to Washington because he could not make Republicans want to play by bipartisan rules. This is not true. Obama did deliver his promise. The change he brought was to get Congress to pass a piece of major legislation, breaking the stalemate that has prevailed in Washington for so many years.
Laird Cummings
Secondly, just curious Laird, you say he should lead us out of these 'wars' in the deserts. Do you think the Afghanistan war should never have happened? Do you think we (NATO) should just leave? I'm not talking Iraq, I mean Afghanistan. Please elaborate. FYI, Obama has never said he is going to get us out of Afghanistan - he actually wants to build up troops. And he should. We need to stabilize that country and neutralize the Taliban. But if you think he will 'lead us out of Afghanistan", he never said that he would, and he won't. Trust me, I've been there,ain't we ain't leaving anytime soon. One needs to visit to see how screwed up and complex things really are there - and it's not another "blame it on the Bushies thing". Afghanistan's problems are rooted in things that haven't changed for a thousand years.
As much as Obama has disappointed me so far (and this awful "stimulus" bill actually scares the hell outta me) I have to give him credit for 2 things. One, he said "I screwed up" about one of his three tax cheats. Now, he doesn't deserve too much credit here, because when most of the lame-stream media is worshipping you (I hear MSNBC is having daily church services praying to Obama statues) then it's much easier to say you screwed up. The media will just give you a pass, blow you another kiss, and tuck you into bed. But he did at least say it, which is more than W would ever do about Iraq, the single biggest foreign policy disaster in recent US history. If anything deserved an "I screwed up" it was Iraq, and we'll likely never get it.
Secondly, I admire Obama for having some serious hutzbah on this awful bill. He came out an basically said "if it fails, well, you can blame me". And this thing is a scary, dangerous beast that could potentially slide us into something that is actually as bad as the great depression - which we are nowhere even close to. Things are bad for American standards, but our unemployment rate is still lower than many Western European countries. But when you listen to the Obama scare tactics, you'd think our country will cease to exist in a week or two if nothing is done. But he deserves credit for basically going for it. He's gonna throw up the Hail Mary Pass with this thing 3 weeks into his administration. I kinda admire that in many ways. It's like a double-or-nothing bet at the craps table. Win, or walk with nothing. He seems like a gambler, and that could be a good thing and a bad thing too. Either way, he could well be sealing his legacy only thee weeks into his administration. But I give him credit for having the cahones to take a chance and go for it, whether I agree with how he's doing it or not.